 Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economyAntonio García-Olivares and Joaquim Ballabrera-Poy Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, vol. 90, issue PB, 587-598 Abstract: The coming fossil fuel peak may cause shortages in energy supplies and major disturbances in the global economy. The forecasts for the future of our way of life are very divergent depending on the prediction used for future human access to energy, and they range between collapse and indefinite growth. The LINEX production function, which depends on energy input, was modified, calibrated and used to model the gross domestic product (GDP) of the US economy under several different energy scenarios after the fossil fuel peak. The effects of information and communication technologies and technological innovation after energetic crises have been also modeled. A future renewable mix of global scale will require the use of a major fraction of the reserves of several important minerals. In this context, a future steady-state economy appears to be the best plausible scenario. Some of the implications and challenges derived from this steady-state economy are discussed. Keywords: Energy security; Sustainable future; Steady-state economy; US GDP; Limits to growth (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pb:p:587-598 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013 Access Statistics for this article Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier |
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