 A two-sex renewal model and its population projectionNan Li Theoretical Population Biology, 2022, vol. 143, issue C, 46-51 Abstract: Population projections rely on one-sex renewal models. Consequently, changing the projection of male mortality does not affect the projection of birth, contradicting commonsense. A two-sex renewal model is presented in this paper to provide a better description of reproduction and more reasonable population projections. This model is nonlinear and includes the one-sex renewal models as special cases. In this model, age-specific birth rates are defined for two sexes jointly; total fertility, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate are also derived for two sexes jointly; and age-specific populations approach or converge to stable status. Applying the two-sex renewal model to Australia, it indicates that one-sex models underestimated the intrinsic growth rate by 14 percent. Compared to the results of one-sex models, the two-sex model would provide higher growth rate for low-fertility countries, and lower growth rate for high-fertility countries. In other words, the one-sex models are commonly biased. If the two-sex model is applied to all the countries, it would project smaller populations for the world in the future. Keywords: Two-sex renewal model; Stable population; Population projection (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:143:y:2022:i:c:p:46-51 DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2021.11.001 Access Statistics for this article Theoretical Population Biology is currently edited by Jeremy Van Cleve More articles in Theoretical Population Biology from Elsevier |
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