Economics at your fingertips  

Estimating the long-run metro demand elasticities for Lisbon: A time-varying approach

Patricia C. Melo, Nuno Sobreira () and Pedro Goulart ()

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2019, vol. 126, issue C, 360-376

Abstract: This paper provides the first estimation of long-run demand elasticities for Lisbon’s metro, covering the lifetime of the metro’s operation from 1960 until 2017. The findings indicate that the metro patronage is relatively more responsive to changes in the fare than to changes in service level, with long-run elasticity values ranging between −0.45 to −0.84 for metro travel card and between 0.45 and 0.50 for service level. This implies that fare policies are likely to be more effective at influencing patronage than supply policies. We also find a substitution effect between the metro and private motorized transport, but not between the metro and the urban bus/tram system. There is also evidence of a strong relation between wage and metro demand for poorer individuals, which we interpret as an indication of greater mobility constrains faced by these individuals for whom an increase in income level only permits more mobility by public transport. Finally, we also implement a recursive time-varying method to investigate the presence of structural breaks resulting from the very large increase in metro prices and the strong reduction in service level during the period of economic crisis and public finance imbalances that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008. During this period, metro demand elasticities changed, especially for the metro fare, suggesting it became more elastic.

Keywords: Public transport demand elasticities; Time series analysis; Structural breaks; Urban transport policy; Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2019.06.019

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().

Page updated 2020-11-07
Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:360-376