Paths to the adoption of electric vehicles: An evolutionary game theoretical approach

Sara Encarnação, Fernando P. Santos, Francisco C. Santos, Vered Blass, Jorge M. Pacheco and Juval Portugali

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2018, vol. 113, issue C, 24-33

Abstract: Electric vehicles (EVs) are a viable alternative to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with the potential to alleviate the negative externalities stemming from the present ICE-based transportation sector. Notwithstanding, the current prevalence of ICE creates a lock-in state that averts the adoption of alternative and environmental friendly technologies, bringing forth a social dilemma. Here we investigate the feasibility of escaping the present lock-in state by studying possible incentive mechanisms involving, simultaneously, governments (public), companies (private) and consumers (civil). Resorting to evolutionary game theory (EGT), we develop a theoretical model grounded on the strategic interactions between players from the different sectors, whose co-evolving choices influence (and are influenced by) different policies and social incentives. Our findings suggest that i) public regulation is necessary but not sufficient for guaranteeing full EV adoption; ii) public-civil synergies are essential; iii) demand for EVs preceding supply is most efficient, providing companies with the needed incentives to counterweigh infrastructure investments; and iv) full adoption of EVs requires coordination between the three sectors to emerge, particularly when changes are initiated by the public sector.

Keywords: Electric vehicles; Evolutionary dynamics; Diffusion; Policy; Game theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2018.05.002

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