A study of economic indicators in rail freight traffic cycles 1950-76

George H. K. Wang

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1981, vol. 15, issue 6, 391-405

Abstract: This paper examines the characteristics of rail freight traffic cycles from 1950 to 1976. Both the NBER's statistical indicator approach and time series approach are used to identify the leading indicators of rail freight traffic cycles from a set of leading economic indicators published by the Department of Commerce. The concepts and empirical results obtained by these two procedures are compared and contrasted. The interesting findings are: (1) the composite index of 12 leading indicators performs very well as a qualitative and quantitative predictor and (2) the empirical results obtained by the NBER approach are, in general, consistent with those obtained by the time series approach.

Date: 1981
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