Dynamic forecasting of urban shopping travel demand

Norbert Oppenheim

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1986, vol. 20, issue 5, 391-402

Abstract: A time-dependent model for commercial activity location and travel demand is developed based on the assumptions that instantaneous interzonal shopping travel demand can be described by a gravity formulation, whereas the incremental individual zonal retail space allocations are such that they maximize the aggregate, net resulting profit from retail sales. Over time, link travel costs are updated as a function of the current link volumes, whereas commercial space development costs are updated as a function of current zonal activity levels. Constraints on commercial space allocation are at the individual zonal level, as well as at the aggregate level of the overall area. The objective function for the corresponding mathematical program is then linearized, and the model programmed for implementation using a linear programming routine. The results of several simulations illustrate the dynamic impacts various urban development policies have on commercial activity location. In particular, periodic oscillations in zonal activity levels, as well as sudden changes in the spatial pattern of interzonal shopping travel, may appear for certain model parameter values. Several directions for future refinement of the model, including inclusion of economic variables and interaction with other urban activities, are discussed in conclusion.

Date: 1986
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