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Tropical storms and mortality under climate change

Todd Pugatch

World Development, 2019, vol. 117, issue C, 172-182

Abstract: Extreme weather induced by climate change can have major consequences for human health. In this study, I quantify the effect of tropical storm frequency and severity on mortality using objective meteorological data and the universe of vital statistics records from a large developing country, Mexico. Using a measure of storm exposure that accounts for both windspeed dispersion and population density along the storm track, I project changes in past storm-related mortality under various scenarios of continued climate change, while holding population and income at contemporaneous levels. I find that storm-related deaths would have risen under most climate change scenarios considered, with increases of as much as 52% or declines of as much as 10%, depending on the interplay between increasing storm severity and decreased frequency.

Keywords: Tropical storms; Tropical cyclones; Hurricanes; Natural disasters; Human mortality; Human health; Climate change; Developing countries; Latin America; Mexico (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Working Paper: Tropical Storms and Mortality under Climate Change (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Tropical Storms and Mortality under Climate Change (2019) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:117:y:2019:i:c:p:172-182

DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.01.009

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