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Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty

María Alejandra Arias, Ana Ibáñez () and Andres Zambrano ()

World Development, 2019, vol. 119, issue C, 165-184

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities.

Keywords: Conflict; Uncertainty; Agricultural production; Small-farmers; Developing economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D13 D74 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Working Paper: Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty (2017) Downloads
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