Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty

María Alejandra Arias (ma.arias106@uniandes.edu.co), Ana Ibáñez and Andres Zambrano
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María Alejandra Arias: University of Chicago

No 245, HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4,800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities.

Keywords: conflict; uncertainty; agricultural production; small-farmers; developing economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D13 D74 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2017-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-dev
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hic:wpaper:245

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