Do earthquakes increase or decrease crime?

Adan Silverio-Murillo, Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar, Fernanda Sobrino and Daniel Prudencio

World Development, 2024, vol. 182, issue C

Abstract: Theories on the relationship between earthquakes and crime present mixed predictions. On the one hand, earthquakes improve individual cooperation, social trust, and crime reduction. On the other hand, earthquakes impact state capacity and enhance the prevalence of motivated offenders such as street gangs. This study empirically analyzes the effects of the September 2017 earthquakes in Mexico on personal crimes (assault and aggravated assault) and property crimes (vehicle theft, residential burglary, and vandalism). Using official police data, a difference-in-differences technique, and an event-study design, the results show that earthquakes increased assault by 14 percent and vandalism by 8 percent.

Keywords: Crime; Disasters; Earthquakes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H8 K4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:182:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24001815

DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106711

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