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Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century

Bilge Erten () and Jose Antonio Ocampo

World Development, 2013, vol. 44, issue C, 14-30

Abstract: Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super cycles during 1865–2010 ranging between 30 and 40years with amplitudes 20–40% higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward trend, interrupted temporarily during the twentieth century.

Keywords: super cycles; commodity prices; Prebisch–Singer hypothesis; band-pass filters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:44:y:2013:i:c:p:14-30

DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.11.013

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