Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-ninteenth century

Bilge Erten

Working Papers from United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs

Abstract: Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years with amplitudes 20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward trend, interrupted temporarily during the twentieth century.

Keywords: Super-cycles; commodity prices; band-pass filters; Prebisch-Singer hypothesis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E3 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2012-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene and nep-his
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (85)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:une:wpaper:110

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