Commodity prices shocks and the Brazilian economy in the 2000s

Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis (), André Moreira Cunha () and Priscila Linck ()

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2019, vol. 39, issue 3, 427-448

Abstract: This paper evaluates how falling commodity prices affected the Brazilian economy during the 2000s. In order to fulfill this objective two different statistical methods were used, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model with structural component and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. With respect to the level of activities, it was found that about 1/3 of the economic slowdown post 2014 could be attributed to the change in the commodities prices regime. JEL Classification: O11; F44; E32; F63.

Keywords: Commodities prices; business cycles; Brazilian economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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