Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia

Manmohan Agarwal () and T. R. Vandana ()

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2022, vol. 42, issue 2, 263-282

Abstract: A number of developing countries mainly in East Asia and Latin America andRussia suffered exchange rate crises in the 1990s. We examine the run up to the crisis interms of a few macro indicators suggested by various crisis models. We then examine theaftermath of the crisis, in contrast to most empirical work that concentrates on determiningthe causes of crises. We seek to explain the pre-crisis as well as the post-crisis situationin the light of various crisis models. We find that the first-generation crisis model despiteanomalies seems to fit the crises in Latin American countries whereas it does not fit thecrisis in the Asian countries. The Russian case is different from any of the crisis models.The crisis eliminated the Dutch disease aspects leading to a large increase in exports andan improvement in the current account balance. This resulted in a higher growth rate of GDP. We also find that the exchange market pressure index is not successful in predictingthe crises. JEL Classification: E420; F310; F320.

Keywords: Monetary regime; currency crisis; balance of payments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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