Brazil’s quasi-stagnation and the new developmentalism

Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira ()

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2022, vol. 42, issue 2, 503-531

Abstract: From the 1980s, Brazil quasi-stagnated while East-Asia continued to grow. Whatwent wrong? Classical developmentalists and post-Keynesians argue the cause was thedesertion of the national developmental project based on structural change or industrialization.New-developmental economics agrees but is more specific: two historical new facts reducedinvestments. In the 1980s, a fiscal crisis of the state defined by negative public savings, brokeup. This crisis, which was not resolved, led to the fall of public investments. As to privateinvestments, they also have fallen as a percentage of GDP (when we compare with the 1970).They have fallen due to an action and an omission. The action was the mistaken adoption ofgrowth with foreign indebtedness policy and the consequent excess of capital inflows. Theomission was the suspension of the neutralization of the Dutch disease. Both resulted in along-term overvaluation of the exchange rate and stopped industrialization. JEL Classification: O1; E2; F31; F34; F41.

Keywords: Public investment; private investment; exchange rate; foreign indebtedness; Dutch disease (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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