Sectoral deindustrialization and long-run stagnation of Brazilian manufacturing

Paulo César Morceiro () and Joaquim Guilhoto

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 2023, vol. 43, issue 2, 418-441

Abstract: In Brazil and elsewhere in the world, diagnoses of deindustrialization areconcentrated in aggregate manufacturing, so policies can be ineffective if deindustrializationhas a sector-specific component. This study quantifies and analyses deindustrializationfor the individualised manufacturing sub-sectors. To do this, unpublished series of themanufacturing sub-sectors’ share in the Brazilian GDP from 1970 to 2016 were created,based on official IBGE data. The results show that the manufacturing sub-sectors have deindustrialised at different intensities and periods of aggregate manufacturing, and a subsectoralapproach reveals traces ignored by the literature on the quality of deindustrialization.We conclude that the Brazilian deindustrialization is normal (and expected) for the labourintensivemanufacturing sub-sectors, but premature (and undesirable) for the technologyintensivesub-sectors. Therefore, Brazilian deindustrialization has negative consequences forthe country’s future scientific and technological development. JEL Classification: O14; L6; L16.

Keywords: Sectoral deindustrialization; industrial development; sectoral heterogeneity; structural change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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