A sectoral perspective on the persistence of economic sentiment: mere transitory effect or a long memory process?

Ivana Lolić, Petar Sorić and Marija Logarušić
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ivana Lolić and Petar Sorić

Review of Keynesian Economics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 3, 328-349

Abstract: Opposing the mainstream view that economic sentiment conveys information of purely short-term relevance, we assess the long memory characteristics of confidence indicators derived from Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS). We utilize a battery of fractional integration tests on five sectoral BCS indicators in 28 European economies. Conforming to social learning theory, we find that the examined confidence indicators in all five sectors exhibit noteworthy persistence. This finding stays intact in various robustness checks: across countries and for different fractional integration test specifications. Nevertheless, post hoc comparisons reveal that confidence in the construction and consumer sectors exhibits considerably more intensive persistence than in the industry, retail trade, and services. Since it is evident that shocks in economic sentiment have long-term or permanent effects, this calls for a revival of Keynesian ideas and the stabilization role of well-thought and timely countercyclical economic policy measures.

Keywords: persistence; fractional integration; long memory process; economic sentiment; Business and Consumer Surveys (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 E71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.elgaronline.com/view/journals/roke/11/3/article-p328.xml (application/pdf)
Restricted Access

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:11:y:2023:i:3:p328-349

Access Statistics for this article

Review of Keynesian Economics is currently edited by Thomas Palley, Matías Vernengo and Esteban Pérez Caldentey

More articles in Review of Keynesian Economics from Edward Elgar Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Phillip Thompson ().