Disasters, harvests and grain prices during the pre-industrial era in Pearl River Delta of China

Yongqin Guo, Wei Lin, Yanping Zhao, Jiangrui Tao and Yueli Luo

China Agricultural Economic Review, 2025, vol. 18, issue 1, 3-19

Abstract: PurposeIn the pre-industrial era, rice prices were closely related to climatic hazards. Studying this relationship in today’s most developed region of China, the Pearl River Delta, provides an important case of development economics.Design/methodology/approachBased on unique primary data for droughts, floods, rice harvests and prices in Guangdong Province in the 18th and 19th centuries, this study illustrates the relationship between drought/flood levels and rice price fluctuations with different mechanisms analysis.FindingsDrought and flood hazards had an impact on short-term fluctuations in rice prices, but floods had a greater impact on rice price fluctuations than droughts, particularly on late-season rice. Disaster levels exert a significant negative effect on rice prices until the severity of the disaster reaches a critical threshold, after which rice prices increase.Originality/valueIt provides historical insights on improving the resilience of the agricultural output to natural disasters and climate change, promoting better integration of food reserves into the construction of the Greater Bay Area.

Keywords: Drought and flood; Rice harvests; Rice price; Pearl River Delta (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:caerpp:caer-12-2023-0383

DOI: 10.1108/CAER-12-2023-0383

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