The impact of China's hukou system reform on educational job mismatch among urban migrants

Qi Ding, Sholeh A. Maani and Le Wen

International Journal of Manpower, 2026, vol. 47, issue 6, 893-910

Abstract: PurposeChina's hukou system ties access to public services (education, healthcare, social security) to the registered locality. This arrangement creates structural disadvantages for migrants in urban labour markets. One consequence is a higher incidence of job mismatch, particularly overeducation. When migrants consistently require higher qualifications to access the same occupations as non-migrants, overeducation becomes a policy-relevant issue.Design/methodology/approachIn 2014, China launched hukou reforms to ease migrants' access to urban hukou. The study first employs a city-level difference-in-differences approach to systematically assess whether these reforms reduced overeducation. It then conducts an individual-level analysis using a city-level hukou eligibility threshold index to capture the intensity of reforms, further exploring the underlying mechanisms and heterogeneity of the effects. Greater reductions in the threshold indicate enhanced access to urban public services.FindingsThe hukou system increases migrants' risk of overeducation, while reforms mitigate this risk. After controlling for year and city fixed effects, the implementation of hukou reform reduced the incidence of overeducation by approximately 1 percentage point in treated cities relative to untreated cities. A one-unit increase in the city hukou eligibility threshold index is associated with a 4.8 percentage points increase in the probability of overeducation. Mechanism analysis indicates reforms reduce overeducation by alleviating employment competition, discrimination and financial employment pressure.Practical implicationsThe study provides evidence that institutional barriers intensify educational mismatches, offering policy insights for countries with urban–rural dual structures and segmented labour markets. Heterogeneity analysis shows stronger effects among public sector, male and non-agricultural hukou migrants.Originality/valueThis study systematically examines an underexplored question of economic relevance by incorporating methodologically advanced approaches. It integrates individual-level data with city-level causal inference techniques that account for labour market competition, thereby improving analytical precision.

Keywords: Hukou system reform; Migrants; Overeducation; Job mismatch; Employment competition; Employment discrimination; Employment pressure; Causal inference; Mechanism analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijmpps:ijm-12-2025-1027

DOI: 10.1108/IJM-12-2025-1027

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