EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market

Sanjay Sehgal, Wasim Ahmad and Florent Deisting ()

Journal of Economic Studies, 2015, vol. 42, issue 2, 261-284

Abstract: Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to examine the price discovery and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of four currencies (namely, USD/INR, EURO/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR) and between futures prices of both stock exchanges namely, Multi-Commodity Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. Design/methodology/approach - – The study applies cointegration test of Johansen’s along with VECM to investigate the price discovery. GARCH-BEKK model is used to examine the volatility spillover between spot and futures and between futures prices. The other two models namely, constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation are used to demonstrate the constant and time-varying correlations. In order to confirm the volatility spillover results, the study also applies test of directional spillovers suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012). Findings - – The results of the study show that there is long-term equilibrium relationship between spot and futures and between futures markets. Between futures and spot prices, futures price appears to lead the spot price in the short-run. Volatility spillover results indicate that the movement of volatility spillover takes place from futures to spot in the short-run while spot to futures found in the long-run. However, the results of between futures markets exhibit the dominance of MCX-SX over NSE in terms of volatility spillovers. By and large, the findings of the study indicate the important role of futures market in price discovery as well as volatility spillovers in India’s currency market. Practical implications - – The results highlight the role of futures market in the information transmission process as it appears to assimilate new information quicker than spot market. Hence, policymakers in emerging markets such as India should focus on the development of necessary institutional and fiscal architecture, as well as regulatory reforms, so that the currency market trading platforms can achieve greater liquidity and efficiency. Originality/value - – Due to recent development of currency futures market, there is dearth of literature on this subject. With the apparent importance of currency market in recent time, this study attempts to study the efficient behavior of currency market by way of examining the price discovery and volatility spillovers between spot and futures and between futures prices of four currencies traded on two platforms. The study has strong implications for India’s stock market especially at the time when its currency is under great strain owing to the adverse impact of global financial crisis.

Keywords: DCC-GARCH; BEKK-GARCH; Currency futures market; Directional spillovers; Price discovery; Volatility spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/10.1108/JES-11-2012- ... RePEc&WT.mc_id=RePEc (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jespps:v:42:y:2015:i:2:p:261-284

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
http://www.emerald.com/jes.htm

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economic Studies is currently edited by Professor Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

More articles in Journal of Economic Studies from Emerald Group Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Virginia Chapman ().

 
Page updated 2021-05-23
Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:42:y:2015:i:2:p:261-284