What Determines Crime: Prosperity or Poverty?

Natalia Sypion, Pawel Terefenko, Michael Leitner, Marek Dutkowski, Andrzej Lysko and Tomasz M. Komorowski

European Research Studies Journal, 2024, vol. XXVII, issue 2, 394-424

Abstract: Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the socioeconomic determinants of crime on a local scale. Three research questions were asked. (1) Do prosperity or poverty indicators better determine crime? (2) Which socioeconomic variables are most strongly correlated with crime? (3) Which types of crimes are most influenced by socioeconomic variables? Design/Methodology/Approach: The research area was Szczecin in Poland (population of approximately 400,000). The dependent variables included six crime types reported in 2017, and the independent variables included three indicators of poverty and three indicators of prosperity. The dataset was analyzed using linear regression and random forest approaches to further investigate the statistical characteristics of variables, obtaining the following answers to our research questions obtained. Findings: (1) The variables of poverty determine the occurrence of crime more than those related to prosperity. (2) The variables of poverty related to low income, including population assisted by the Municipal Family Assistance Center per 1,000 persons and unemployment per 1,000 persons have the strongest influence on crime. (3) Drug crimes per 1,000 persons are the most strongly influenced by socioeconomic variables, while theft of property per 1,000 persons revealed no impact. Practical Implications: The study highlights the strong influence of poverty, particularly unemployment, on crime rates and suggests limited impact of prosperity on crime prevention. Originality/Value: The article presents the results of own desk research. The issue presented has not previously been addressed in discussions published internationally.

Keywords: Crime; prosperity; poverty; linear regression; random forest. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C31 D14 D31 D61 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxvii:y:2024:i:2:p:394-424

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