Application of Technical Analysis Stochastic Oscillator for Early Detection of Epidemiological Changes Based on Covid-19 Data in Poland

A. Szepeluk, D. Tomczyszyn and A. Cyburt

European Research Studies Journal, 2024, vol. XXVII, issue 3, 1069-1082

Abstract: Purpose: The aim of the research was to test the possibility of using a type of technical analysis indicator – the stochastic oscillator – to predict the progression of an epidemic based on the Polish COVID-19 epidemic data. Design/Methodology/Approach: Data on active COVID-19 cases in Poland in 2020/22 were used as a research material. The stochastic oscillator was used to determine turning points in the prediction of epidemiological changes. Findings: It was demonstrated that the best performance is achieved with the slow, smoothed version of the oscillator and the following parameters: %K14 and %D7. Despite a few erroneously generated changes in the incidence trend, most signals were verified correctly. Practical Implications: The stochastic oscillator, most commonly used in finance to predict market trends, may also find application in research related to predicting disease progression. Originality/Value: Studies such as those in this article, based on epidemiological data, have not been conducted before.

Keywords: Simulation Methods; Simulation Modeling; Public Health. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C63 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxvii:y:2024:i:3:p:1069-1082

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