Source of Transaction Price Data vs. Rates of Return on Housing Investment: Evidence from Poland

Sebastian Kokot and Krzysztof Janasz

European Research Studies Journal, 2025, vol. XXVIII, issue 3, 1609-1636

Abstract: Purpose: The purpose of the research presented in this thesis is to estimate and assess the levels, trends and variation in returns on home purchases and rentals, as well as the impact on these phenomena of the data sources used Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper thus addresses two problems related to the analysis of the housing market. The first is the trends in returns on investment in secondary market housing. The second is the reliability of housing price data published by various institutions. The research was conducted for 16 local markets - the largest cities in Poland. Statistical measures and charts were used for comparisons. Findings: The analyses conducted prove that the prices of dwellings indicated by three different data sources vary. While in the case of prices published by the advertising service, the differences compared to other sources – CSO and NBP – are understandable, the significant differences between the transaction prices published by the two government institutions are inexplicable. The differences between the average rates of return obtained from different sources for individual cities are not large, rarely exceeding 0.5%. In terms of rates of return, the cities surveyed differed from each other to a much greater extent than the same cities differed in terms of data sources. Practical implications: The paper shows that the data published by different institutions on average market prices of dwellings differ and that these differences are not subject to specific regularities. The indicated differences in prices do not translate into correspondingly significant differences in the levels of investment returns outside of incidental situations. However, such incidental distortions may be the reason for an inappropriate investment decision. Originality value: The study is novel, as research on the explicitly addressed problem has not been undertaken to date. The study demonstrates that public datasets of market information should not be used for further analysis and research indiscriminately and that it is legitimate to evaluate them.

Keywords: Housing market; data quality; housing prices; rates of return; Poland. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R10 R30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxviii:y:2025:i:3:p:1609-1636

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