Assessment of the Crisis Potential of the Baltic States: Conclusions from the Conducted Research

Oleg Mietki and Rafal Piotr Depczynski

European Research Studies Journal, 2025, vol. XXVIII, issue 4, 1076-1100

Abstract: Purpose: The article analyses the crisis threat potential of the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) in the context of contemporary security challenges in the Central European region. Design/Methodology/Approach: Based on a multidimensional analysis of five key threat areas (political, environmental, socio-cultural, economic and military) and the use of multifactor diagnostic indicators, the level of crisis flammability in each of the countries was assessed. Findings: The research results indicate that the overall crisis potential of the Baltic States is at an average level of crisis flammability (Estonia and Lithuania – 2.21 points, Latvia – 2.04 points on a 0–4 scale). The highest crisis flammability is demonstrated by the areas of political and military threats, which results mainly from tense relations with Russia and Belarus, as well as from the geopolitical location and the risk of hybrid actions and potential armed aggression. Practical Implications: Socio-cultural and economic areas generate average crisis potential, with the greatest challenges in terms of demography (negative natural increase, migration, ageing society), poverty, unemployment and negative trade balance. Originality Value: The area of natural (environmental) hazards shows low crisis potential, although climate change requires constant monitoring.

Keywords: Baltic States; military conflict; potential crisis; geopolitical relations; Russia and Belarus. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F45 H12 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxviii:y:2025:i:4:p:1076-1100

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