Evaluation of Dutch Election Programs. The Impact of Parameter Uncertainty

Joris Knoben, M. Kerkhofs and Johan Graafland

Review of Business and Economic Literature, 2006, vol. LI, issue 1, 47-74

Abstract: Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. It can be concluded that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.

Keywords: Parameter uncertainty; policy evaluation; general equilibrium models; election programs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Working Paper: Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ete:revbec:20060103

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