Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty

Joris Knoben, M. Kerkhofs and Johan Graafland

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. We find that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.

Keywords: Model simulation; policy evaluation; parameter uncertainty; CGE models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C68 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Published in Tijdschrift voor Economie en Management 51.1(2006): pp. 47-72

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Related works:
Journal Article: Evaluation of Dutch Election Programs. The Impact of Parameter Uncertainty (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:20773

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