Kur Politikasının Dış Ticaret Dengesini Sağlamadaki Etkinliği: Türkiye Uygulaması

Harun Terzi and Ahmet Zengin
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Ahmet Zengin: Karadeniz Technical University

Ekonomik Yaklasim, 1999, vol. 10, issue 33, 48-65

Date: 1999
Note: [English Title] THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF TRADE BALANCE: AN APPLICATION TO TURKEY [English Abstract] The last 15 years has seen an increase in focus on exchange rate policy, and effects of exchange rates on foreign trade in Turkish economy. A vector autoregression (VAR) model is used to analyse the interrelationships between the exchange rate, exports and imports in both aggregate and sectoral levels during the period 1989:1-1996:12. By the use of VAR, empirical evidences indicate that there is bi-directional causality between exchange rates and exports. Even though there is a close relationship between exports and imports, however, the fact that imports is not responsive to the exchange rate policy. The major conclusion is that there is no strong empirical evidence that exchange rate policy is an effective tool to eliminate the trade imbalances. [English Keywords] Exchange rate policy, exports, imports and VAR
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