Türkiye’nin Laffer Eğrisi: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Tekniği

Rahmi Yamak

Ekonomik Yaklasim, 1996, vol. 7, issue 21, 27-38

Date: 1996
Note: [English Title] Turkey's Laffer Curve: Kalman Filter Estimation Technique [English Abstract] In this study, the Laffer curve and the relationship between the tax revenue and the tax rate for Turkey have been investigated. Annual data for the period of 1960-1993 are used as the sample. A quadratic function for the Laffer curve is specified and estimated under the Kalman Filter technique. The findings of the Kalman Filter estimation technique imply that the Laffer curve and the tax rate which is maximizing the revenues were not fixed during the sample period. According to the results of the study, it was expected from the tax administration to maximize tax revenues when average tax rates lie in the range of 0.136-0.175. When the tax rates that are maximizing the revenues are compared with the current tax rates, it appears that the Turkish tax administration has operated in the inefficient region of the Laffer curve for many years. Four periods where the tax administration has operated in the inefficient region of the curve were identified. In 1993 the average tax rate was 0.195 while the tax rate that w as maximizing the revenues w as about 0.17. It means that in 1993 there was a possibility for the tax administration to raise the total tax revenues by reducing the current average tax rate, but this was not realized. [English Keywords] Not available
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