Research on China’s Export Structure to the US: Analysis Based on the US Economic Growth and Exchange Rate

Shusong Ba () and Shanshan Shen ()
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Shusong Ba: School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430007, China Research Institute of Finance, Development Research Center of the State Council, Beijing 100017, China
Shanshan Shen: School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430007, China

Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, 2010, vol. 5, issue 3, 339-355

Abstract: Due to the rapid appreciation of RMB, the consistent declining of the US economy and other uncertain factors, China’s export volume to the United States has declined. The paper first chooses six industries to divide them into three groups based on per capita possession of capital, then employs the monthly data from 2001 to 2008 to carry out EG two-step cointegration test, and finally analyzes the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries. Empirical results show that the labor-intensive industries are most susceptible to fluctuations brought by economic growth and real exchange rate, while those industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors. In the short run, the export of labor-intensive products gives an advantage to China’s foreign trade development, but in the long-run, these industries will be affected greatly by various uncertain factors and the advantages of China’s labor-intensive export industries will disappear with the shift of the international division. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the dominant position of China’s foreign trade is to develop capital and technology intensive export industries and upgrade export structure.

Keywords: real exchange rate; export structure; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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