EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth

Kurt Lunsford

Economic Commentary, 2017, No 06

Abstract: Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, and, in 2015, it took steps to improve the seasonal adjustment of data back to 2012. I show that residual seasonality in GDP growth remains even after these adjustments, has been a longer-term phenomenon, and is particularly noticeable in the 1990s. The size of this residual seasonality is economically meaningful and has the ability to change the interpretation of recent economic activity.

Keywords: Economic Activity; measurement; GDP; seasonal adjustment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/p ... y-in-gdp-growth.aspx Full text (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcec:00067

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic Commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by 4D Library ().

 
Page updated 2020-01-26
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00067