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Economic Commentary

1982 - 2019

From Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact information at EDIRC.

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2019, issue October

Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed over Time? Downloads
Mark Bognanni

2019, issue September

Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive Downloads
Saeed Zaman
Trends in the Noninterest Income of Banks Downloads
Joseph Haubrich and Tristan Young
The Winners and Losers from Trade Downloads
Daniel Carroll and Sewon Hur

2019, issue July

Behavior of a New Median PCE Measure: A Tale of Tails Downloads
Daniel Carroll and Randal Verbrugge
The Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Policy Implications Depend on the Cause Downloads
Filippo Occhino
Bitcoin’s Decentralized Decision Structure Downloads
Ben Craig and Joseph Kachovec

2019, issue June

Changes in the Occupational Structure of the United States: 1860 to 2015 Downloads
Joel Elvery

2019, issue May

12 Facts about Temporary Urbanists Downloads
Stephan Whitaker
Population, Migration, and Generations in Urban Neighborhoods Downloads
Stephan Whitaker

2019, issue April

Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Remains after Latest BEA Improvements Downloads
Victoria Consolvo and Kurt Lunsford
Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths Downloads
Edward Knotek

2019, issue March

Custom Comparison Groups in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Downloads
Peter Hinrichs

2019, issue February

What Is Behind the Persistence of the Racial Wealth Gap? Downloads
Dionissi Aliprantis and Daniel Carroll

2019, issue January

Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions? Downloads
Murat Tasci and Nicholas Zevanove
Asset Commonality in US Banks and Financial Stability Downloads
Jan-Peter Siedlarek and Nicholas Fritsch

2018, issue August

Parental Assistance after Job Loss Downloads
Patrick Coate, Pawel Krolikowski and Mike Zabek
The Evolution of the Labor Share across Developed Countries Downloads
Roberto Pinheiro and Meifeng Yang

2018, issue July

Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted? Downloads
Kurt Lunsford

2018, issue May

College Endowments Downloads
Peter Hinrichs
An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting Downloads
Mark Bognanni and Tristan Young

2018, issue April

Are the New Basel III Capital Buffers Countercyclical? Exploring the Option of a Rule-Based Countercyclical Buffer Downloads
Filippo Occhino

2018, issue February

Using Economic Experiments to Improve Contingent Convertible Capital Bonds Downloads
Edward Prescott and Douglas Davis

2018, issue January

Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession Downloads
Murat Tasci and Caitlin Treanor

2017, issue November

Do Foreign-Born Workers Cause Native-Born Workers to Move or Leave the Labor Force? Downloads
Roberto Pinheiro and Allan Dizioli
Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates in the Long Run Downloads
Kurt Lunsford
Have Inflation Dynamics Changed? Downloads
Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

2017, issue October

When States Default: Lessons from Law and History Downloads
Ozgur Ergungor
The 1970s Origins of Too Big to Fail Downloads
Edward Prescott and George Nurisso

2017, issue September

What’s Gone Wrong (and Right) in the Industrial Heartland? Downloads
Mark Schweitzer
The Opioid Epidemic and the Labor Market Downloads
Dionissi Aliprantis and Anne Chen

2017, issue August

Merger Control in the Banking Sector Downloads
Jan-Peter Siedlarek
Measuring the True Impact of Job Loss on Future Earnings Downloads
Pawel Krolikowski
Warehousing: A Historical Lesson in Central Bank Independence Downloads
Owen Humpage
Sizing Up Systemic Risk Downloads
Joseph Haubrich and Charlotte DeKoning

2017, issue June

New Data on Wealth Mobility and Their Impact on Models of Inequality Downloads
Daniel Carroll and Nicholas Hoffman

2017, issue May

How Small Banks Deal with Large Shocks Downloads
Kristle Cortes

2017, issue April

The Federal Funds Market since the Financial Crisis Downloads
Ben Craig and Sara Millington

2017, issue March

Wage Growth after the Great Recession Downloads
Roberto Pinheiro and Meifeng Yang
Trends in Revenues at US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013 Downloads
Peter Hinrichs
Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Downloads
Kurt Lunsford

2017, issue February

Parental Proximity and the Earnings Consequences of Job Loss Downloads
Patrick Coate, Pawel Krolikowski and Mike Zabek

2017, issue January

Monetary Policy and Inequality Downloads
Pedro Amaral
The State of States’ Unemployment in the Fourth District Downloads
Murat Tasci, Caitlin Treanor and Christopher Vecchio

2016, issue December

New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity Downloads
Mark Bognanni and John Zito

2016, issue November

Geographic Mobility and Consumer Financial Health: Evidence from Oil Production Boom Towns Downloads
Rawley Heimer, Timothy Stehulak and Caitlin Treanor
The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years Downloads
Ellis Tallman and Saeed Zaman
The Fed’s Yield-Curve-Control Policy Downloads
Owen Humpage

2016, issue October

Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees? Downloads
Stephan Whitaker

2016, issue September

Trends in Expenditures by US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013 Downloads
Peter Hinrichs
Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations Downloads
Randal Verbrugge and Carola Binder

2016, issue August

Does Fiscal Stimulus Work when Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt? Downloads
Yuliya Demyanyk, Elena Loutskina and Daniel Murphy
Recession Probabilities Downloads
Ozgur Ergungor

2016, issue July

Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules Downloads
Edward Knotek, Randal Verbrugge and Christian Garciga

2016, issue June

Trends in Employment at US Colleges and Universities, 1987–2013 Downloads
Peter Hinrichs
Income Inequality Matters, but Mobility Is Just as Important Downloads
Daniel Carroll and Anne Chen

2016, issue May

The Consequences of Exposure to Violence during Early Childhood Downloads
Dionissi Aliprantis and Anne Chen
National Preferences for Bank or Market Financing Downloads
Raj Aggarwal and John Goodell

2016, issue April

Central Bank Lending in a Liquidity Crisis Downloads
Filippo Occhino

2016, issue March

The Natural Rate of Interest in Taylor Rules Downloads
Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst
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