Examining the Beliefs of Professional Forecasters

Ina Hajdini and Dylan C. Jacobs
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Dylan C. Jacobs: https://www.clevelandfed.org/people/profiles/j/jacobs-dylan

Economic Commentary, 2026, vol. 2026, issue 24, 9

Abstract: This Economic Commentary studies how professional forecasters update their forecasts in response to macroeconomic news. We find that the two most important news releases for how professionals update their short-term forecasts are the unemployment rate and the three-month Treasury bill rate. News about the unemployment rate is particularly important when updating forecasts about real GDP growth or unemployment, whereas news about the short-term Treasury bill rate tends to be more informative for revisions of inflation and three-month Treasury bill rate forecasts.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202624

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