Do Group Unemployment Rates Send Warning Signs about the Broader Labor Market?

Kevin Rinz

Economic Commentary, 2026, vol. 2026, issue 10, 5

Abstract: Labor market commentary often discusses unemployment rates for certain groups as potential leading indicators for the overall unemployment rate. I test that idea for several commonly mentioned groups, finding that increases in the unemployment rates for Black workers and workers who did not complete high school do predict higher overall unemployment in subsequent months. Though not commonly discussed in this context, increases in the unemployment rate for workers aged 35–44 also predict higher subsequent overall unemployment.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202610

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