Is High Productivity Growth Returning?

Alexander Cline, James A. Kahn and Robert Rich

Economic Commentary, 2025, vol. 2025, issue 01, 12

Abstract: Productivity growth has shown a notable pickup since the fourth quarter of 2019, and some commentators cite artificial intelligence and other factors as reasons why technological progress can sustain this faster pace. Motivated by this consideration, we use a model designed to detect trend shifts to examine the behavior of productivity growth in the postwar period. The model allows for shifts between high- and low-growth productivity regimes and estimates the probability of being in one regime or the other. We find that recent data provide tentative support for a higher trend growth rate, with the model estimating about a 40 percent probability that the economy is in a high-growth productivity regime.

Keywords: Productivity; growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202501

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