Details about Robert Rich
Access statistics for papers by Robert Rich.
Last updated 2025-03-14. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pri146
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Working Papers
2025
- Low Pass-Through from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
IDB Publications (Working Papers), Inter-American Development Bank 
Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2023) View citations (5)
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
2024
- An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
See also Journal Article An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2025) (2025)
2023
- Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2023) View citations (1)
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2023) View citations (1)
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2023) View citations (1)
- Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
- How Do Firms Adjust Prices in a High Inflation Environment?
Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
2022
- Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (5)
- Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2022)
- Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2024) View citations (2) (2024)
- Surveys of Professionals
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
2021
- All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (3)
2018
- A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (8)
Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2018) View citations (10)
See also Journal Article A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2021) View citations (23) (2021)
2017
- The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
2014
- The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG
BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements View citations (13)
Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014) View citations (9)
2013
- Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of... the Labor Market?
Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services
Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2012
- Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment
Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
- The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (14)
See also Journal Article The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2016) View citations (66) (2016)
2011
- Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2006
- The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (17)
2005
- A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (54)
2004
- The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (2)
2003
- Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (19)
- Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (7)
See also Journal Article Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) View citations (80) (2007)
2001
- Structural change in U.S. wage determination
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2000
- Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2000) View citations (7)
See also Journal Article Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2004) View citations (45) (2004)
1999
- Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (14)
See also Journal Article Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2001) View citations (63) (2001)
1997
- Is there an inflation puzzle?
Research Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (42)
See also Journal Article Is there an inflation puzzle?, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1997) View citations (21) (1997)
Journal Articles
2025
- An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2025, 173, (C)
See also Working Paper An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters, Working Papers (2024) (2024)
- Is High Productivity Growth Returning?
Economic Commentary, 2025, 2025, (01), 12
2024
- Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, 145, (S) View citations (2)
See also Working Paper Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence, Working Papers (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
2023
- The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012
Economic Commentary, 2023, 2023, (11), 7 View citations (1)
2022
- Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness
Economic Commentary, 2022, 2022, (05), 7 View citations (2)
- Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations
Economic Commentary, 2022, 2022, (03), 9 View citations (2)
2021
- A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2021, 53, (1), 233-253 View citations (23)
See also Working Paper A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area, Working Papers (2018) View citations (8) (2018)
- Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters
Economic Commentary, 2021, 2021, (09), 7 View citations (4)
- Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary
Economic Commentary, 2021, 2021, (03), 3
- Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary
Economic Commentary, 2021, 2021, (02), 7
2020
- How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth
Economic Commentary, 2020, 2020, (19), 9 View citations (1)
- Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics | 2019 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary
Economic Commentary, 2020, 2020, (14), 3
2019
- Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary
Economic Commentary, 2019, 2019, (22), 6
2017
- The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
Economic Policy Review, 2017, (23-2), 1-32 View citations (10)
2016
- The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31, (3), 533-550 View citations (66)
See also Working Paper The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Staff Reports (2012) View citations (14) (2012)
2013
- Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995
Journal of Labor Economics, 2013, 31, (4), 825 - 842 View citations (1)
- The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2013, 19, (Aug) View citations (21)
2011
- How does slack influence inflation?
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2011, 17, (June) View citations (25)
2010
- Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2010, 16, (Aug/Sep) View citations (18)
- The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92, (1), 200-207 View citations (121)
2009
- Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2009, 15, (Sep) View citations (3)
2007
- A comparison of measures of core inflation
Economic Policy Review, 2007, 13, (Dec), 19-38 View citations (24)
- Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (6), 1670-1701 View citations (80)
Also in Proceedings, 2003, (Nov) (2003) View citations (20)
See also Working Paper Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity, Staff Reports (2003) View citations (7) (2003)
2006
- Tracking productivity in real time
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2006, 12, (Nov) View citations (9)
2005
- Using Regional Economic Indexes to Forecast Tax Bases: Evidence from New York
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87, (4), 627-634 View citations (3)
2004
- The historical and recent behavior of goods and services inflation
Economic Policy Review, 2004, (Dec), 19-31 View citations (14)
- Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86, (1), 270-287 View citations (45)
See also Working Paper Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations, NBER Working Papers (2000) View citations (8) (2000)
2001
- Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey
Economic Policy Review, 2001, (Mar), 73-94 View citations (2)
- Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2001, 19, (4), 416-27 View citations (63)
See also Working Paper Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio, Staff Reports (1999) View citations (14) (1999)
2000
- Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2000, 6, (Jul) View citations (15)
1999
- Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 1999, 5, (Oct) View citations (8)
1998
- Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1998, 30, (3), 411-19 View citations (26)
1997
- Erratum [Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach]
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, (4), 555 View citations (54)
- Is there an inflation puzzle?
Economic Policy Review, 1997, 3, (Dec), 51-77 View citations (21)
See also Working Paper Is there an inflation puzzle?, Research Paper (1997) View citations (42) (1997)
- Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, (2), 193-213 View citations (127)
1995
- Inflation and the asymmetric effects of money on output fluctuations
Journal of Macroeconomics, 1995, 17, (4), 683-702 View citations (61)
1994
- Rural Poverty and Aggregate Agricultural Performance in Post-independence India
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1994, 56, (2), 111-33 View citations (26)
- Testing for the exogeneity of real income in models of the poverty process evidence from post-independence India
Economics Letters, 1994, 46, (4), 295-302
1993
- Testing for measurement errors in expectations from survey data: An instrumental variables approach
Economics Letters, 1993, 43, (1), 5-10 View citations (1)
1992
- The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1992, 7, (2), 131-48 View citations (28)
1991
- Generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models
Economics Letters, 1991, 35, (2), 179-185 View citations (17)
1989
- Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 71, (4), 682-86 View citations (23)
Chapters
2003
- Distinguishing trends from cycles in productivity
A chapter in Monetary policy in a changing environment, 2003, vol. 19, pp 443-462
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