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Details about Robert Rich

Homepage:https://www.clevelandfed.org/research/economists/rich-robert-w
Phone:216 579-2928
Postal address:Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland P.O. Box 6387 Cleveland, Ohio 44101-1387
Workplace:Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Robert Rich.

Last updated 2025-03-14. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pri146


Jump to Journal Articles Chapters

Working Papers

2025

  1. Low Pass-Through from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
    IDB Publications (Working Papers), Inter-American Development Bank Downloads
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2023) Downloads View citations (5)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022) Downloads

2024

  1. An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads
    See also Journal Article An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2025) Downloads (2025)

2023

  1. Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2023) Downloads View citations (1)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2023) Downloads View citations (1)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2023) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (1)
  3. How Do Firms Adjust Prices in a High Inflation Environment?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (1)

2022

  1. Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (5)
  2. Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Downloads
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2022) Downloads
  3. Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2024) Downloads View citations (2) (2024)
  4. Surveys of Professionals
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (1)

2021

  1. All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Downloads View citations (3)

2018

  1. A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2018) Downloads View citations (10)

    See also Journal Article A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2021) Downloads View citations (23) (2021)

2017

  1. The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (1)

2014

  1. The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG
    BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements Downloads View citations (13)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2014) Downloads View citations (9)

2013

  1. Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of... the Labor Market?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads
  2. Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads

2012

  1. Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (1)
  2. The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2016) Downloads View citations (66) (2016)

2011

  1. Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads

2006

  1. The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (17)

2005

  1. A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (54)

2004

  1. The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (2)

2003

  1. Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (19)
  2. Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2007) Downloads View citations (80) (2007)

2001

  1. Structural change in U.S. wage determination
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads

2000

  1. Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2000) Downloads View citations (7)

    See also Journal Article Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2004) Downloads View citations (45) (2004)

1999

  1. Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2001) View citations (63) (2001)

1997

  1. Is there an inflation puzzle?
    Research Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Downloads View citations (42)
    See also Journal Article Is there an inflation puzzle?, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1997) Downloads View citations (21) (1997)

Journal Articles

2025

  1. An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2025, 173, (C) Downloads
    See also Working Paper An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters, Working Papers (2024) Downloads (2024)
  2. Is High Productivity Growth Returning?
    Economic Commentary, 2025, 2025, (01), 12 Downloads

2024

  1. Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, 145, (S) Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence, Working Papers (2022) Downloads View citations (1) (2022)

2023

  1. The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012
    Economic Commentary, 2023, 2023, (11), 7 Downloads View citations (1)

2022

  1. Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness
    Economic Commentary, 2022, 2022, (05), 7 Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations
    Economic Commentary, 2022, 2022, (03), 9 Downloads View citations (2)

2021

  1. A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2021, 53, (1), 233-253 Downloads View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area, Working Papers (2018) Downloads View citations (8) (2018)
  2. Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters
    Economic Commentary, 2021, 2021, (09), 7 Downloads View citations (4)
  3. Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary
    Economic Commentary, 2021, 2021, (03), 3 Downloads
  4. Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2020 Conference Summary
    Economic Commentary, 2021, 2021, (02), 7 Downloads

2020

  1. How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth
    Economic Commentary, 2020, 2020, (19), 9 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics | 2019 CEBRA Annual Meeting Session Summary
    Economic Commentary, 2020, 2020, (14), 3 Downloads

2019

  1. Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary
    Economic Commentary, 2019, 2019, (22), 6 Downloads

2017

  1. The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
    Economic Policy Review, 2017, (23-2), 1-32 Downloads View citations (10)

2016

  1. The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31, (3), 533-550 Downloads View citations (66)
    See also Working Paper The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Staff Reports (2012) Downloads View citations (14) (2012)

2013

  1. Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995
    Journal of Labor Economics, 2013, 31, (4), 825 - 842 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2013, 19, (Aug) Downloads View citations (21)

2011

  1. How does slack influence inflation?
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2011, 17, (June) Downloads View citations (25)

2010

  1. Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2010, 16, (Aug/Sep) Downloads View citations (18)
  2. The Relationships among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92, (1), 200-207 Downloads View citations (120)

2009

  1. Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2009, 15, (Sep) Downloads View citations (3)

2007

  1. A comparison of measures of core inflation
    Economic Policy Review, 2007, 13, (Dec), 19-38 Downloads View citations (24)
  2. Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (6), 1670-1701 Downloads View citations (80)
    Also in Proceedings, 2003, (Nov) (2003) Downloads View citations (20)

    See also Working Paper Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity, Staff Reports (2003) Downloads View citations (7) (2003)

2006

  1. Tracking productivity in real time
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2006, 12, (Nov) Downloads View citations (9)

2005

  1. Using Regional Economic Indexes to Forecast Tax Bases: Evidence from New York
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005, 87, (4), 627-634 Downloads View citations (3)

2004

  1. The historical and recent behavior of goods and services inflation
    Economic Policy Review, 2004, (Dec), 19-31 Downloads View citations (14)
  2. Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86, (1), 270-287 Downloads View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations, NBER Working Papers (2000) Downloads View citations (8) (2000)

2001

  1. Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey
    Economic Policy Review, 2001, (Mar), 73-94 Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2001, 19, (4), 416-27 View citations (63)
    See also Working Paper Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio, Staff Reports (1999) Downloads View citations (14) (1999)

2000

  1. Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2000, 6, (Jul) Downloads View citations (15)

1999

  1. Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
    Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 1999, 5, (Oct) Downloads View citations (8)

1998

  1. Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1998, 30, (3), 411-19 View citations (26)

1997

  1. Erratum [Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach]
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, (4), 555 View citations (54)
  2. Is there an inflation puzzle?
    Economic Policy Review, 1997, 3, (Dec), 51-77 Downloads View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper Is there an inflation puzzle?, Research Paper (1997) Downloads View citations (42) (1997)
  3. Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, (2), 193-213 View citations (125)

1995

  1. Inflation and the asymmetric effects of money on output fluctuations
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1995, 17, (4), 683-702 Downloads View citations (60)

1994

  1. Rural Poverty and Aggregate Agricultural Performance in Post-independence India
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1994, 56, (2), 111-33 View citations (26)
  2. Testing for the exogeneity of real income in models of the poverty process evidence from post-independence India
    Economics Letters, 1994, 46, (4), 295-302 Downloads

1993

  1. Testing for measurement errors in expectations from survey data: An instrumental variables approach
    Economics Letters, 1993, 43, (1), 5-10 Downloads View citations (1)

1992

  1. The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1992, 7, (2), 131-48 Downloads View citations (28)

1991

  1. Generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models
    Economics Letters, 1991, 35, (2), 179-185 Downloads View citations (17)

1989

  1. Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 71, (4), 682-86 Downloads View citations (23)

Chapters

2003

  1. Distinguishing trends from cycles in productivity
    A chapter in Monetary policy in a changing environment, 2003, vol. 19, pp 443-462 Downloads
 
Page updated 2025-03-31