Rural Poverty and Aggregate Agricultural Performance in Post-independence India

Clive Bell and Robert Rich

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1994, vol. 56, issue 2, 111-33

Abstract: This paper examines the movements in, and determinants of, rural poverty in India, using both new series and quite different econometric procedures form those employed in earlier studies. Specifically, issues of simultaneity bias, of autocorrelation in the poverty series, and of generated regressors are addressed within a unified econometric framework. The evidence provides support for the model specifications, with the following conclusions: (1) there was considerable persistence in poverty, (2) poverty was quite sensitive to contemporaneous real agricultural output per head, with long-run elasticities twice short-run ones, (3) there is some evidence that unanticipated inflation increased poverty, and (4), the economic process was probably distributionally neutral Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Date: 1994
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