Tracking productivity in real time

James Kahn () and Robert Rich

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2006, vol. 12, issue Nov

Abstract: Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.

Keywords: Econometric models; Industrial productivity - Measurement; Economic policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2006:i:nov:n:v.12no.8

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