Tracking productivity in real time
James Kahn () and
Robert Rich ()
Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2006, vol. 12, issue Nov
Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.
Keywords: Econometric models; Industrial productivity - Measurement; Economic policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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