EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Tracking productivity in real time

James Kahn () and Robert Rich ()

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2006, vol. 12, issue Nov

Abstract: Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.

Keywords: Econometric models; Industrial productivity - Measurement; Economic policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci12-8.pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/rese ... t_issues/ci12-8.html (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2006:i:nov:n:v.12no.8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Current Issues in Economics and Finance from Federal Reserve Bank of New York Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2020-07-05
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2006:i:nov:n:v.12no.8