Economic Commentary

1982 - 2025

From Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact information at EDIRC.
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2016, issue 12, vol 2016

Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees? pp. 6

Stephan Whitaker

2016, issue December

New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity

Mark Bognanni and John Zito

2016, issue November

Geographic Mobility and Consumer Financial Health: Evidence from Oil Production Boom Towns

Rawley Heimer, Timothy Stehulak and Caitlin Treanor

The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years

Ellis Tallman and Saeed Zaman

The Fed’s Yield-Curve-Control Policy

Owen Humpage

2016, issue September

Trends in Expenditures by US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013

Peter Hinrichs

Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations

Carola Binder and Randal Verbrugge

2016, issue August

Does Fiscal Stimulus Work when Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt?

Yuliya Demyanyk, Elena Loutskina and Daniel Murphy

Recession Probabilities

Ozgur Ergungor

2016, issue July

Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules

Christian Garciga, Edward Knotek and Randal Verbrugge

2016, issue June

Trends in Employment at US Colleges and Universities, 1987–2013

Peter Hinrichs

Income Inequality Matters, but Mobility Is Just as Important

Daniel Carroll and Anne Chen

2016, issue May

The Consequences of Exposure to Violence during Early Childhood

Dionissi Aliprantis and Anne Chen

National Preferences for Bank or Market Financing

Raj Aggarwal and John Goodell

2016, issue April

Central Bank Lending in a Liquidity Crisis

Filippo Occhino

2016, issue March

The Natural Rate of Interest in Taylor Rules

Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst

2015, issue 14, vol 2015

The Role Bank Branches Play in a Mobile Age pp. 6

Kristle Cortes

2015, issue 12, vol 2015

Are Millennials with Student Loans Upwardly Mobile? pp. 6

Stephan Whitaker

2015, issue 03, vol 2015

Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty pp. 6

Todd Clark, Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

2015, issue Nov

Is a Nonseasonally Adjusted Median CPI a Useful Signal of Trend Inflation?

Amy Higgins and Randal Verbrugge

Forecasting Unemployment in Real Time during the Great Recession: An Elusive Task

Murat Tasci and Caitlin Treanor

2015, issue September

Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?

Charles Carlstrom and Margaret Jacobson

Zero Growth and Long-Run Inequality

Daniel Carroll and Eric Young

2015, issue July

Income Growth and the Impact of Relative Price Changes on Age-based Consumption Patterns

LaVaughan Henry

Why Has Consumption Been So Volatile in the New Millennium?

Yuliya Demyanyk, Dmytro Hryshko, Daniel Kolliner and Bent Sorensen

2015, issue June

Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures and Inflation Expectations

Mehmet Pasaogullari

2015, issue May

Interest Rate Forecasts in Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Periods

Nelson Oliver and Mehmet Pasaogullari

Paper Money and Inflation in Colonial America

Owen Humpage

2015, issue April

Neighborhood Poverty and Quality in the Moving to Opportunity Experiment

Dionissi Aliprantis and Daniel Kolliner

2015, issue Feb

The Often-Ignored Regional Banking Sector

Lakshmi Balasubramanyan and Timothy Bianco

Excess Reserves: Oceans of Cash

Ben Craig and Matthew Koepke

2014, issue Nov

Reassessing the Effects of Extending Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Pedro Amaral and Jessica Ice

2014, issue Oct

Income Inequality and Income-Class Consumption Patterns

LaVaughan Henry

Public Housing, Concentrated Poverty, and Crime

Daniel Hartley

A Gap in Regulation and the Looser Lending Standards that Followed

Yuliya Demyanyk and Elena Loutskina

How Much Slack Is in the Labor Market? That Depends on What You Mean by Slack

Murat Tasci and Randal Verbrugge

Interest Rate Risk and Rising Maturities

William Bednar and Mahmoud Elamin

2014, issue Sept

The Evolution of Household Leverage during the Recovery

Stephan Whitaker

2014, issue Aug

On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

The Shifting Source of New Business Establishments and New Jobs

Ian Hathaway, Mark Schweitzer and Scott Shane

The Importance of Trend Inflation in the Search for Missing Disinflation

Todd Clark

2014, issue Jul

Does the CDFI Fund Help Low-Income Borrowers?

Kristle Cortes

2014, issue June

Rising Interest Rate Risk at US Banks

William Bednar and Mahmoud Elamin

New Rules for Credit Default Swap Trading: Can We Now Follow the Risk?

John Carlson and Margaret Jacobson

2014, issue May

Why Do Economists Still Disagree over Government Spending Multipliers?

Daniel Carroll

Adding Double Inertia to Taylor Rules to Improve Accuracy

Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst

The Slowdown in Residential Investment and Future Prospects

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

2014, issue April

Which Estimates of Metropolitan-Area Jobs Growth Should We Trust?

Joel Elvery and Christopher Vecchio

Which Poor Neighborhoods Experienced Income Growth in Recent Decades?

Dionissi Aliprantis and Kyle Fee

Cooperation, Conflict, and the Emergence of a Modern Federal Reserve

Owen Humpage

2014, issue March

Using an Improved Taylor Rule to Predict When Policy Changes Will Occur

Charles Carlstrom and Saeed Zaman

Estimating the Impact of Fast-Tracking Foreclosures in Ohio and Pennsylvania

Kyle Fee and Thomas J. Fitzpatrick

The Overhang of Structures before and since the Great Recession

Margaret Jacobson and Filippo Occhino

2014, issue Feb.

Do Oil Prices Predict Inflation?

Mehmet Pasaogullari and Patricia Waiwood