Economic Commentary

1982 - 2026

From Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact information at EDIRC.
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2018, issue 06, vol 2018

Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted? pp. 6

Kurt Lunsford

2018, issue 05, vol 2018

An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting pp. 6

Mark Bognanni and Tristan Young

2018, issue 04, vol 2018

College Endowments pp. 6

Peter Hinrichs

2018, issue 03, vol 2018

Are the New Basel III Capital Buffers Countercyclical? Exploring the Option of a Rule-Based Countercyclical Buffer pp. 6

Filippo Occhino

2018, issue 02, vol 2018

Using Economic Experiments to Improve Contingent Convertible Capital Bonds pp. 6

Douglas Davis and Edward Prescott

2018, issue 01, vol 2018

Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession pp. 6

Murat Tasci and Caitlin Treanor

2018, issue August

Parental Assistance after Job Loss

Patrick Coate, Pawel Krolikowski and Mike Zabek

The Evolution of the Labor Share across Developed Countries

Roberto Pinheiro and Meifeng Yang

2017, issue November

Do Foreign-Born Workers Cause Native-Born Workers to Move or Leave the Labor Force?

Allan Dizioli and Roberto Pinheiro

Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates in the Long Run

Kurt Lunsford

Have Inflation Dynamics Changed?

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

2017, issue October

When States Default: Lessons from Law and History

Ozgur Ergungor

The 1970s Origins of Too Big to Fail

George Nurisso and Edward Prescott

2017, issue September

What’s Gone Wrong (and Right) in the Industrial Heartland?

Mark Schweitzer

The Opioid Epidemic and the Labor Market

Dionissi Aliprantis and Anne Chen

2017, issue August

Merger Control in the Banking Sector

Jan-Peter Siedlarek

Measuring the True Impact of Job Loss on Future Earnings

Pawel Krolikowski

Warehousing: A Historical Lesson in Central Bank Independence

Owen Humpage

Sizing Up Systemic Risk

Charlotte DeKoning and Joseph Haubrich

2017, issue June

New Data on Wealth Mobility and Their Impact on Models of Inequality

Daniel Carroll and Nicholas Hoffman

2017, issue May

How Small Banks Deal with Large Shocks

Kristle Cortes

2017, issue April

The Federal Funds Market since the Financial Crisis

Ben Craig and Sara Millington

2017, issue March

Wage Growth after the Great Recession

Roberto Pinheiro and Meifeng Yang

Trends in Revenues at US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013

Peter Hinrichs

Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth

Kurt Lunsford

2017, issue February

Parental Proximity and the Earnings Consequences of Job Loss

Patrick Coate, Pawel Krolikowski and Mike Zabek

2017, issue January

Monetary Policy and Inequality

Pedro Amaral

The State of States’ Unemployment in the Fourth District

Murat Tasci, Caitlin Treanor and Christopher Vecchio

2016, issue 12, vol 2016

Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees? pp. 6

Stephan Whitaker

2016, issue December

New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity

Mark Bognanni and John Zito

2016, issue November

Geographic Mobility and Consumer Financial Health: Evidence from Oil Production Boom Towns

Rawley Heimer, Timothy Stehulak and Caitlin Treanor

The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years

Ellis Tallman and Saeed Zaman

The Fed’s Yield-Curve-Control Policy

Owen Humpage

2016, issue September

Trends in Expenditures by US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013

Peter Hinrichs

Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations

Carola Binder and Randal Verbrugge

2016, issue August

Does Fiscal Stimulus Work when Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt?

Yuliya Demyanyk, Elena Loutskina and Daniel Murphy

Recession Probabilities

Ozgur Ergungor

2016, issue July

Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules

Christian Garciga, Edward Knotek and Randal Verbrugge

2016, issue June

Trends in Employment at US Colleges and Universities, 1987–2013

Peter Hinrichs

Income Inequality Matters, but Mobility Is Just as Important

Daniel Carroll and Anne Chen

2016, issue May

The Consequences of Exposure to Violence during Early Childhood

Dionissi Aliprantis and Anne Chen

National Preferences for Bank or Market Financing

Raj Aggarwal and John Goodell

2016, issue April

Central Bank Lending in a Liquidity Crisis

Filippo Occhino

2016, issue March

The Natural Rate of Interest in Taylor Rules

Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst

2015, issue 14, vol 2015

The Role Bank Branches Play in a Mobile Age pp. 6

Kristle Cortes

2015, issue 12, vol 2015

Are Millennials with Student Loans Upwardly Mobile? pp. 6

Stephan Whitaker

2015, issue 03, vol 2015

Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty pp. 6

Todd Clark, Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

2015, issue Nov

Is a Nonseasonally Adjusted Median CPI a Useful Signal of Trend Inflation?

Amy Higgins and Randal Verbrugge

Forecasting Unemployment in Real Time during the Great Recession: An Elusive Task

Murat Tasci and Caitlin Treanor

2015, issue September

Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?

Charles Carlstrom and Margaret Jacobson

Zero Growth and Long-Run Inequality

Daniel Carroll and Eric Young

2015, issue July

Income Growth and the Impact of Relative Price Changes on Age-based Consumption Patterns

LaVaughan Henry

Why Has Consumption Been So Volatile in the New Millennium?

Yuliya Demyanyk, Dmytro Hryshko, Daniel Kolliner and Bent Sorensen

2015, issue June

Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures and Inflation Expectations

Mehmet Pasaogullari

2015, issue May

Interest Rate Forecasts in Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Periods

Nelson Oliver and Mehmet Pasaogullari

Paper Money and Inflation in Colonial America

Owen Humpage

2015, issue April

Neighborhood Poverty and Quality in the Moving to Opportunity Experiment

Dionissi Aliprantis and Daniel Kolliner

2015, issue Feb

The Often-Ignored Regional Banking Sector

Lakshmi Balasubramanyan and Timothy Bianco

Excess Reserves: Oceans of Cash

Ben Craig and Matthew Koepke