An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting

Mark Bognanni and Tristan Young

Economic Commentary, 2018, vol. 2018, issue 05, 6

Abstract: The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure?s predictive content for producer and consumer price inflation by assessing its ability to improve inflation forecasts for three broad monthly inflation measures. We find that the ISMPI has some predictive content for producer prices but not for consumer prices.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201805

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