Economic Commentary

1982 - 2025

From Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact information at EDIRC.
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2025, issue 14, vol 2025

Are Young College Graduates Losing Their Edge in the Job Market? pp. 10

Alexander Cline and Baris Kaymak

2025, issue 13, vol 2025

Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment pp. 12

Christian Garciga and James Mitchell

2025, issue 12, vol 2025

Has the Market’s Perception of the FOMC’s Reaction Function Changed since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic? pp. 9

Alexander Cline and Chengcheng Jia

2025, issue 11, vol 2025

Did Inflation Affect Households Differently? A Look at the Postpandemic Inflation and Wage Growth Dynamics pp. 11

André Victor Doherty Luduvice, Anaya Truss-Williams and Christopher J. Walker

2025, issue 10, vol 2025

Safety in Schools and Neighborhoods pp. 9

Craig Sylvera

2025, issue 09, vol 2025

Understanding Inflation via Developments in Market and Nonmarket Inflation Rates pp. 8

Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman

2025, issue 08, vol 2025

Neutral Interest Rates and the Monetary Policy Stance pp. 12

Taylor N. Horn and Saeed Zaman

2025, issue 07, vol 2025

Consumer Inflation Expectations Across Surveys and over Time pp. 10

Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Damjan Pfajfar, Raphael Schoenle and Taylor Shiroff

2025, issue 06, vol 2025

Compression in the Wage Distribution During the Post-Covid-19 Labor Market pp. 9

Daniel Carroll and Christopher J. Walker

2025, issue 05, vol 2025

QT, Ample Reserves, and the Changing Fed Balance Sheet pp. 9

Joseph Haubrich

2025, issue 04, vol 2025

Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century pp. 12

Alexander Cline and Baris Kaymak

2025, issue 03, vol 2025

Residual Seasonality in Five Measures of PCE Inflation pp. 6

Kurt Lunsford

2025, issue 02, vol 2025

Technology Adoption and the Changing Role and Background of Clerical Workers pp. 8

Jan Eeckhout, Christoph Hedtrich and Roberto Pinheiro

2025, issue 01, vol 2025

Is High Productivity Growth Returning? pp. 12

Alexander Cline, James A. Kahn and Robert Rich

2024, issue 18, vol 2024

Advance Layoff Notice Provision and the WARN Act pp. 10

Bruce Fallick, Dylan C. Jacobs and Pawel Krolikowski

2024, issue 17, vol 2024

New-Tenant Rent Passthrough and the Future of Rent Inflation pp. 10

Lara Loewenstein, Jason Meyer and Randal Verbrugge

2024, issue 16, vol 2024

How Insured Are Workers Against Unemployment? Unemployment Insurance and the Distribution of Liquid Wealth pp. 8

André Victor Doherty Luduvice and Anaya Truss-Williams

2024, issue 15, vol 2024

Wage Growth, Labor Market Tightness, and Inflation: A Service Sector Analysis pp. 9

Ina Hajdini

2024, issue 14, vol 2024

Reciprocal Deposits and the Banking Turmoil of 2023 pp. 12

Edward Prescott and Grant Rosenberger

2024, issue 13, vol 2024

Can the IRA and CHIPS Act Reduce Labor Earnings Inequality? Lessons from the US Shale Boom pp. 7

Victor Hernandez Martinez and Geena Panzitta

2024, issue 12, vol 2024

Neighborhood Sorting, Metros, and Tomorrow’s Labor Force pp. 8

Daniel Carroll and Christopher J. Walker

2024, issue 11, vol 2024

Understanding Post-Pandemic Surprises in Inflation and the Labor Market pp. 6

Paolo Gelain and Pierlauro Lopez

2024, issue 10, vol 2024

The Evolution of Student Debt 2019–2022: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances pp. 6

Emily Moschini and Thomas Phelan

2024, issue 09, vol 2024

Inflation’s Last Half Mile: Higher for Longer? pp. 8

Randal Verbrugge

2024, issue 08, vol 2024

Regional Economic Sentiment: Constructing Quantitative Estimates from the Beige Book and Testing Their Ability to Forecast Recessions pp. 8

Ilias Filippou, Christian Garciga, James Mitchell and My T. Nguyen

2024, issue 07, vol 2024

The Evolution of US Bank Capital around the Implementation of Basel III pp. 5

Jan-Peter Siedlarek

2024, issue 06, vol 2024

The Failure of the Bank of the Commonwealth: An Early Example of Interest Rate Risk pp. 9

Edward Prescott

2024, issue 05, vol 2024

Disability, Immigration, and Postpandemic Labor Supply pp. 8

Angela Guo and Pawel Krolikowski

2024, issue 04, vol 2024

Comparing Two House-Price Booms pp. 9

Lara Loewenstein and Jason Meyer

2024, issue 03, vol 2024

Financial Markets’ Perceptions of the FOMC’s Data-Dependent Monetary Policy pp. 5

Christopher Healy and Chengcheng Jia

2024, issue 02, vol 2024

Do Higher Markups Lower Labor’s Share of Income? pp. 6

Baris Kaymak and Immo Schott

2024, issue 01, vol 2024

The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Treasury Interest Rates pp. 7

Matthew Gordon and Kurt Lunsford

2023, issue 19, vol 2023

Excess Savings and Consumer Behavior: Excess Compared to What? pp. 10

Martin DeLuca and Roberto Pinheiro

2023, issue 18, vol 2023

Implications of Bank Equity Price Declines for Inflation pp. 6

Ina Hajdini

2023, issue 17, vol 2023

The Long-Run Costs of Higher Inflation

Martin DeLuca and Jean-Paul L'Huillier

2023, issue 15, vol 2023

COVID-19 and Education: An Updated Survey of the Research pp. 5

Peter Hinrichs

2023, issue 14, vol 2023

Financial Stability: Frontier Risks, a New Normal, and Policy Challenges pp. 5

Joseph Haubrich

2023, issue 13, vol 2023

Postpandemic Nominal Wage Growth: Inflation Pass-Through or Labor Market Imbalance? pp. 6

Martin DeLuca and Willem Van Zandweghe

2023, issue 12, vol 2023

Monetary Policy since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Path-Dependent Interpretation pp. 8

Christopher Healy and Chengcheng Jia

2023, issue 11, vol 2023

The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012 pp. 7

Kristoph Naggert, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

2023, issue 10, vol 2023

The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations pp. 7

Christian Garciga, Edward Knotek, Mathieu Pedemonte and Taylor Shiroff

2023, issue 09, vol 2023

The Effect of Higher Financing Costs on Job Openings and Online Job Postings pp. 7

Adiah Bailey and Victor Hernandez Martinez

2023, issue 08, vol 2023

The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation pp. 8

Todd Clark and Matthew Gordon

2023, issue 07, vol 2023

Trend Inflation and Implications for the Phillips Curve pp. 6

Ina Hajdini

2023, issue 06, vol 2023

A Real-Time Assessment of Inflation Nowcasting at the Cleveland Fed pp. 8

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

2023, issue 05, vol 2023

Increasing the (Female) Labor Supply

Lara Loewenstein

2023, issue 04, vol 2023

US Labor Market after COVID-19: An Interim Report pp. 7

Martin DeLuca and Roberto Pinheiro

2023, issue 03, vol 2023

Racial Differences in Returns on Business Ownership pp. 6

Jacob Hager and Baris Kaymak

2023, issue 02, vol 2023

Job Loss Consequences and the Pandemic Recession pp. 9

Angela Guo, Pawel Krolikowski and Meifeng dup Yang

2023, issue 01, vol 2023

The Discrepancy Between Expenditure- and Income-Side Estimates of US Output pp. 7

Kurt Lunsford