Options and the future: what do markets think?

Ben Craig

Economic Commentary, 2002, issue Oct

Abstract: We're used to hearing analysts make predictions about where the economy is headed based on changes in the prices people are paying for stocks, futures, or other assets. Now, recent research is showing how we can analyze the prices of sophisticated new investment products, like options, to also gauge the probability assigned by the markets to possible future events. In short, we can calculate how likely market participants feel it is that an event will take place in the future.

Keywords: options; Investments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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