The future of inflation

Joseph Haubrich

Economic Commentary, 2011, issue Oct

Abstract: According to consumer price measures like the CPI, inflation has recently jumped up a notch. What those measures don?t tell us is whether the increase will persist. In this Commentary, we look at a measure that does. The measure incorporates data on past inflation rates, surveys of expected inflation, inflation swaps, and a variety of interest rates. It provides estimates of inflation, along with expected inflation and real interest rates. A look at the measure?s estimates suggests that the recent increases in inflation are likely to be temporary.

Keywords: Consumer price indexes; Inflation targeting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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