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Survey-based forecasts identify likely inflation outcomes

Antonella Tutino ()

Economic Letter, 2015, vol. 10, issue 8, 4 pages

Abstract: Professional forecasters generally better predict inflation than household surveys and often outperform nave year-ahead forecasts based on the Fed?s 2 percent target. Constants, the basis of the nave forecasts, benefit because they are not subject to month-to-month volatility.

Date: 2015
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