Capacity utilization as a real-time predictor of manufacturing output

Evan Koenig

Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1996, issue Q III, 16-23

Abstract: In this article, Evan F. Koenig demonstrates that the Federal Reserve Board's initial estimate of manufacturing capacity utilization is helpful in predicting subsequent growth in manufacturing output. Together with lagged real-time output growth and growth in the composite index of leading indicators, capacity utilization explains more than 50 percent of the variation in output growth at a four-quarter horizon. Based on data available at the beginning of the year, the forecasting equation predicts little or no growth in manufacturing output during 1996.

Keywords: Industrial capacity; Manufactures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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