EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Revising the Texas index of leading indicators

Jose Lopez () and Keith Phillips

Southwest Economy, 2007, issue Nov, No 6, 3-7

Abstract: The Texas Leading Index (TLI), produced monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, combines eight measures that tend to anticipate changes in the Texas business cycle by about three to nine months.. ; The TLI was first published in the Dallas Fed?s Economic Review in July 1988. The index?s approaching 20th anniversary provides an apt occasion to review its real-time performance and look at ways it might be improved to keep up with the changing structure of the Texas economy and the availability of new data sources. ; We find that the TLI performed well in the one recession since 1990 and, used in a model forecasting Texas employment, has done well in real time when compared with other forecasts. Although the current version of the TLI works reasonably well, we suggest changes to the TLI that generally reflect the growing importance of services and globalization and the reduced importance of energy production in Texas business cycles.

Keywords: Forecasting; Index numbers (Economics); Economic indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/swe/2007/swe0706b.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddse:y:2007:i:nov:p:3-7:n:6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Southwest Economy from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2021-05-07
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddse:y:2007:i:nov:p:3-7:n:6