Recession Prediction on the Clock

Thomas Mertens

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, vol. 2022, issue 36, 06

Abstract: The jobless unemployment rate is a reliable predictor of recessions, almost always showing a turning point shortly before recessions but not at other times. Its success in predicting recessions is on par with the better-known slope of the yield curve but at a shorter horizon. Hence, it performs better for predicting recessions in the near term. Currently, this data and related series analyzed using the same method are not signaling that a recession is imminent, although that may change in coming months.

Keywords: recessions; unemployment rate; yield curves; jobless; business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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