Predicting crises, part II: Did anything matter (to everybody)?

Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, issue sep28

Abstract: The enormity of the current financial collapse raises the question whether the crisis could have been predicted. This is the second of two Economic Letters on the topic. This Letter examines research suggesting that early warning models would not have accurately predicted the relative severity of the current crisis across countries, casting doubt on the ability of such models to forecast similar crises in the future.

Keywords: Financial crises; Econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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