Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?

Timothy Cogley (tim.cogley@nyu.edu)

Economic Review, 1999, 42-52

Abstract: On several occasions over the last few years, various economists and policymakers have expressed the opinion that the stock market was overvalued. They often compared the situation with the 1920s and warned that the U.S. economy was headed for a similar collapse. Some analysts also suggested that the Fed raise interest rates to slow the rate of \"asset inflation,\" on the grounds that it would be better to burst a speculative bubble in its early stages than to let it develop and suffer the inevitable crash. This paper takes up the other side of the debate and argues that deliberate attempts to puncture asset price bubbles may well turn out to be destabilizing. ; Identification of asset price bubbles requires more knowledge about asset price fundamentals than central banks possess, and the inability to identify speculative bubbles makes it difficult to take timely and well-measured countervailing actions.

Keywords: Stock market; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41)

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