Looking down the road with ALEX: Forecasting U.S. GDP

Scott Brave, R. Andrew Butters and Michael Fogarty

Chicago Fed Letter, 2020, issue 447, 5

Abstract: In this article, we examine the recovery from the recession that began with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. To do so, we present and discuss for the first time the results from a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregressive model called ALEX. This model uses 107 monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity to forecast the near-term path of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP).

Keywords: recession; gross domestic product; GDP; mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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