Chicago Fed Letter

1987 - 2024

From Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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2018

Reinvesting After the Crisis: Changes in the Fixed-Income Portfolios of Life Insurers

Andy Polacek

Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2017 Results and 2018 Forecasts

Thomas Haasl and William Strauss

Inequality and Recessions

Gene Amromin, Mariacristina De Nardi and Karl Schulze

Midwest Agriculture’s Ties to the Global Economy

David Oppedahl

The Winds of Change for Community Banking: Headwinds, Tailwinds, and Regulation

Romel Bonilla, Jenna Cooper, Adam Emmerich, Theresa Hembd, Pamela Kennedy, Blake Marquart and Joseph Nashar

The Structure of Federal Reserve Liabilities

Thomas Haasl, Anna Paulson and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Understanding the Demand for Currency at Home and Abroad

Thomas Haasl, Anna Paulson and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

The Risks of Pricing New Insurance Products: The Case of Long-Term Care

Zain Mohey-Deen and Richard Rosen

Navigating Pension Reform in Illinois

Richard Mattoon and Sarah Wetmore

Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2018 and Then Ease in 2019 as Auto Sales Downshift

Thomas Haasl and William Strauss

A “Principled” Approach to International Guidance for Central Counterparties

Rebecca Lewis

Digital Innovation, Generational Shifts, and the Transformation of Financial Services

Emmanuel Akwafo, Lamont K. Black, Nathan Halmrast, Christa Harris, Shruti Khetan and Ana Oppenheimer

Preventing the Next State Budget Crisis: A Conference Summary

Richard Mattoon

What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?

Scott Brave and David Kelley

Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?

Luca Benzoni, Olena Chyruk and David Kelley

Catastrophe Bonds: A Primer and Retrospective

Andy Polacek

How Have Banks Responded to Changes in the Yield Curve?

Thomas King and Jonathan Yu

The Recent Rise in Health Care Inflation

Diane Alexander

Managing Risk in Global Financial Markets: CCP Governance, Supervisory Stress Testing, and Default Management Auctions

Nahiomy Alvarez

2017

Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2016 Results and 2017 Forecasts

Thomas Haasl and William Strauss

Rules and Discretion in Life Insurance Regulation

Alejandro Drexler, Zain Mohey-Deen and Richard Rosen

The Downturn in Agriculture: Implications for the Midwest and the Future of Farming

David Oppedahl

Recent Declines in the Fed’s Longer-Run Economic Projections

Jonas Fisher and Christopher Russo

Tracking Detroit’s Economic Recovery After Bankruptcy with a New Index

Scott Brave and Paul Traub

Changes in the Risk-Management Environment for Monetary Policy

Jonas Fisher, Francois Gourio and Spencer Krane

Can the CFSBC Activity Index Nowcast U.S. Real GDP Growth?

Thomas Walstrum

Chicago’s Fiscal Future: Growth or Insolvency? A Conference Summary

Richard Mattoon and Sarah Wetmore

Female Labor Supply and Why Women Need to Be Included in Economic Models

Mariacristina De Nardi and Sharada Dharmasankar

Economy to Cruise Near Speed Limit in 2017 and 2018 Even as Auto Sales Downshift

Thomas Haasl and William Strauss

The Burden of Taxation in the United States and Germany

Lorenz Jarass, Anthony E. Tokman and Mark Wright

A New Era of Community Banking

Michael Austin, Marshall Eckblad, Courtney Markovich, Jacqunette Murray, Wade Perry, Nick Strok and Mark L. J. Wright

How Much Risk Do Variable Annuity Guarantees Pose to Life Insurers?

Alejandro Drexler, Thanases Plestis and Richard Rosen

Symposium on OTC Derivatives—A Conference Summary

Rebecca Lewis and Ning Yu

Introducing the Chicago Fed’s New Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index

Scott Brave and David L. Kelly

When It Comes to Wage Growth, the Measure Matters

Ross Cole, Luojia Hu and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Promise and Peril: Managing the Uncertainty of Rapid Innovation and a Changing Economy

Lamont K. Black, Makaylah Brookshire, Louie Christopoulos, Alexandra Dumitriu, Andrew Edwards, Courtney Markovich, Kristin Rhodes and Brian Wolfe

Central Counterparty Risk Management: Beyond Default Risk

Rebecca Lewis

2016

Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2015 Results and 2016 Forecasts

Rebecca Friedman and William Strauss

Improving Transparency and Accountability in State Budgeting

Richard Mattoon

Piketty’s Book and Macro Models of Wealth Inequality

Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella and Fang Yang

How Much Debt Does the U.S. Government Owe?

Rebecca Friedman and Mark Wright

Mortgage Refinancing during the Great Recession: The Role of Credit Scores

Gene Amromin, Benjamin Keys and Arthur J. Murton

Labor Issues Facing Agriculture and the Rural Midwest

David Oppedahl

Savings after Retirement: A Survey

Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French and John Jones

The VW Scandal and Evolving Emissions Regulations

Thomas Klier and Joshua Linn

What Does the Changing Sectoral Composition of the Economy Mean for Workers?

Isaac Sorkin

Is There Still Slack in the Labor Market?

Daniel Aaronson, Scott Brave and David Kelley

Do Insurers in Catastrophe-Prone Regions Buy Enough Reinsurance?

Alejandro Drexler and Florentine M. Eloundou Nekoul

Medicaid Expansion and the Affordable Care Act: A Fiscal Checkup

Richard Mattoon and Sarah Wetmore

Debt Statistics a La Carte: Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness

Daniel Dias and Mark Wright

Macroeconomic Sources of Recent Interest Rate Fluctuations

Stefania D'Amico, Thomas King and Min Wei

Economy to Keep Rolling Along in 2016 and Accelerate Slightly in 2017

Rebecca Friedman and William Strauss

The Illinois Budget Crisis in Context: A History of Poor Fiscal Performance

Thomas Walstrum

Using Private Sector “Big Data” as an Economic Indicator: The Case of Construction Spending

Daniel Aaronson and Scott Brave

Shifting Ground: The Changing Landscape in Financial Markets and Technology

Lamont K. Black, Marshall Eckblad and Ana Oppenheimer

Corporate Cash Flow and Its Uses

Thomas King and Timothy Larach

The Global Diffusion of Ideas and Its Impact on Productivity and Growth

Francisco Buera and Ezra Oberfield

Have Borrowers Recovered from Foreclosures during the Great Recession?

Sharada Dharmasankar and Bhashkar Mazumder

Taking a Deep Dive into Margins for Cleared Derivatives

Rebecca Lewis